Our risk scores are derived from a multi-factor model combining automation research, occupational data, and AI capability assessments. Here's exactly how it works.
Each career is evaluated across seven dimensions, each scored 0–10:
| Factor | 0 = … | 10 = … | Effect on Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Routine Tasks | Fluid, unpredictable | Highly scripted & repetitive | ↑ Increases risk |
| Data Processing | No data work | Primary role is data analysis | ↑ Increases risk |
| Creativity | No original thinking | Constantly generates novel ideas | ↓ Reduces risk |
| Social Skills | No human interaction | Deep empathy & relationship-building | ↓ Reduces risk |
| Physical Dexterity | Purely mental work | Complex unstructured physical tasks | ↓ Reduces risk (short-term) |
| Decision Making | Follows strict rules | High-stakes judgment under uncertainty | ↓ Reduces risk |
| Adaptability | Domain is static | Requires constant learning & flexibility | ↓ Reduces risk |
The weights reflect current AI strengths: language models and data tools are far ahead of robotics, physical manipulation, and genuine creative reasoning.
| Tier | Score Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Very Low | 0–19% | Strong human-centric elements. AI will augment, not replace. |
| 🔵 Low | 20–39% | Some tasks will be automated. Role evolves but survives. |
| 🟡 Moderate | 40–59% | Significant disruption ahead. Reskilling recommended. |
| 🔴 High | 60–74% | Core tasks are automatable. Role demand will decline. |
| 🟣 Critical | 75–100% | Most tasks replaceable today. Transition planning urgent. |
• Geography matters: AI adoption varies widely by country, company, and sector.
• Specialization matters: A general accountant faces higher risk than a forensic accountant or CFO.
• Regulatory lag: Even technically automatable roles (e.g. radiologist) may be protected by regulation for years.
• Unknown careers: For careers not in our database, we infer factors from keywords — accuracy is lower for niche roles.
• AI capabilities evolve: Physical robotics is improving rapidly. Physical tasks will face more risk after 2027.
Our model is inspired by:
• Frey & Osborne (2013) — The Future of Employment (Oxford)
• McKinsey Global Institute (2017, 2023) — Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained
• World Economic Forum — Future of Jobs Report 2023
• OpenAI / Anthropic capability benchmarks (2024–2025)